Are decaf sales tracking this new trend away from caffeine?

Are we having an anti-caffeine moment? Part 2

This is the final part looking at the current state of decaf across the country.

In the first part, we spoke to ACC/Newstalk ZB/Deja Voodoo legend Matt Heath, and Wellington Comms legend Asher Wilson-Goldman.

If you haven’t checked out part 1, go have a look here.

Decaf coffee sales are popping off

If people are leaving caffeine behind, where are they all going?

Some are looking at coffee substitutes, like mushroom coffee, and this market is expected to be worth over $2 billion by 2029.

Others are turning to decaf - the much maligned beverage that used to have scorn heaped on it from all corners. Not anymore - decaf coffee is getting better and sales are rocketing up.

Zoë Milo from Grey Roasting Co in Hamilton told The Magic Roast that sales are kicking off.

“There has been a rise in the decaf coffee market over the last year in both decaf popularity and consumer sales. Following suit we have seen an increase in online decaf sales, some people purchase a few bags at a time which suggests, for some, there is a new staple in the household,” Zoë said.

“A few factors are at play in the rise of decaf popularity. There is a call for balance as consumers are prioritising a healthy lifestyle with the foundation of quality sleep and consistency in energy levels - fit to busy lifestyles. Health research, shifts in preferences, global expansion and evolving decaf production has too propelled this rise.

“For us, our Popayan Decaf is among one of our most comforting coffees, it carries a chocolate milkshake finish that would appeal to any palate, given a blind taste test we are sure many would happily make the switch.”

On the ground in cafes, Matt Ross, owner of Mt Zion coffee and one of the best baristas in New Zealand, told The Magic Roast that he’s doubled his weekly decaf bean order to keep up with consumer demand.

“Decaf has changed so much over the years,” Matt said.

“It’s much more approachable and tastes like coffee! People need to not feel shamed about ordering decaf from a coffee shop. We have noticed an uptick in decaf drinking at our shop, and we think it’s people wanting multiple coffees without crashing out.”

The numbers don’t lie

This trend towards decaf coffee is supported by research conducted by Dr Maria Panagiotidi, cognitive psychologist, science communicator, and author of the Decaf Before Death substack.

Dr Panagiotidi surveyed 356 coffee enthusiasts across 34 countries in 2024, and found:

1. A growing interest in decaf among younger demographics, challenging traditional perceptions.

2. Strong demand for higher quality and more diverse decaf options, particularly in flavour profiles.

3. Health and lifestyle considerations as primary motivators for decaf consumption.

4. A preference for specialty coffee channels and sophisticated brewing methods among decaf consumers.

5. Opportunities for consumer education on processing methods and decaffeination techniques.

Out of the respondents, only 6.8% never consumed decaf and only 11.8% of the participants were decaf-only consumers. Meaning most of the ‘caffeine’ drinkers ALSO threw in decaf options into their regular coffee drinking habit, with many of those drinking decaf on the regular:

Source: Dr Maria Panagiotidi, Decaf Before Death - “Decaf coffee survey results part 1”

It’s not just coffee that is having its decaf moment

Alice Burton, head of operations at coffee and tea importer John Burton, said that it’s not only decaf coffee that is getting more popular.

“Over the past three years, Dilmah has ranged five different decaf [products] in supermarkets at various times. In the last three years, we’ve placed almost 16 million decaf teabags on supermarket shelves,” Alice said.

Since 2022, they’ve seen a 71% increase in decaf tea sales in supermarkets.

“In July 2024, we expanded our decaf range with the launch of Specialty Decaf English Breakfast and Earl Grey, building on the success of our standard decaf [product]. While decaf remains a relatively small category, these two additions have been well received by customers and you can see the growth.

“With a growing demand for decaf options, other brands have also introduced their own decaf options into the tea category.”

But decaf tastes like ass. Doesn’t it?

Late in 2024, coffee daddy James Hoffmann ran the ‘Decaf Project’ - a world wide coffee tasting, where you could taste 4 different processing methods of the same coffee. They were:

• Sugar Cane decaffeination process

• Carbonic Natural CO2 decaffeination process

• Swiss Water decaffeination process

• Non-decaf

One of the roasters of these coffees, D stands for decaf, surveyed people who bought a pack, and it found that the sugar cane decaffeination process scored higher than the non-decaf version.

In my own tasting, the Carbonic Natural process scored much higher than the non-decaf version.

While broadly anecdotal, it shows that decaf coffee processing is getting better and can at least rival non-decaf coffees.

Dove Chen, owner and head roaster of Grey Roasting Co, sent me a bag of their Jairo Arcila Rainbow Decaf, which tastes like purple grape jelly. It’s an incredible coffee that is currently my coffee of 2025.

Moral of the story - great decaf is out there. There’s now no excuse for bad decaf coffee.

Time for a change?

I currently drink 4-5 cups of coffee a day - more to enjoy the ceremony of its preparation rather than the need to get a caffeine hit.

I’ve been incorporating more decaf into the mix, and I still get the benefits of slowing down to prep a great brew - which is sometimes just the ticket to a successful day.

Maybe it’s worth doing that just a little bit more.